Russia has stationed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border in recent months, posing a serious security threat in the region. The we...
Russia has stationed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border in recent months, posing a serious security threat in the region. The west fears that Moscow considers invading Ukraine again as it did in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula by force from Ukraine and provide assistance for pro- Russian separatist insurgent groups in the Donbas region to fight against Ukrainian troops in eastern Ukraine which has so far claimed more than 14000 lives in the region. As in Ukraine eastern part, (Russian-speaking community) which shared its border with Russia have constantly favoured closer ties with Russia while Ukrainian -speaking population in the western part of the country has supported greater integration with Europe.
Ukraine growing military, political and economic engagement with the west and its pro-west policies, unlike central Asian countries which structured their politics around Russian interests, movements like Ukraine's orange revolution seems to have provoked Russia.
In 2017 a survey conducted in Ukraine in which over 50% of people voted in favour to join the European Union, nearly 40% favoured the US-led military alliance and 30% in favour of Russia, During the NATO summit, Ukraine asked to speed up its process of incorporation into the alliance which Russia declared the move as 'Red line'. Vladimir Putin during a call with President Biden asked for legal guarantees that NATO wouldn’t expand eastward or put weapons systems in Ukraine; which US and NATO will never give.
On the Russian Western border already three Baltic countries( Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have joined the NATO alliance as well as the European Union in the early 2000s. Ukraine shared a long broader which holds a very strategic geographical position in the region, also joins NATO not only reduced Russian influence in the Baltic and black sea region but also posed a serious threat to its national and global security interests as it surrounded by NATO members.
Both NATO and USA has made it clear that escalation by Russia on the Ukrainian border lead to serious economic sanctions and increase military support to Ukraine, but Putin is firm in its position that Ukraine is an indispensable part of Russian history and culture so practically, Putin considers Ukraine to be a part of Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine is engaged in consolidating diplomatic and military support from European countries as it does not have enough military resources to counter the giant military power like Russia.
But now the question arises will the west rescue Ukraine if Russia invades? According to experts, it appears unlikely that the West engages in the conflict militarily as most of the western countries struggle in their issues, for instance, Joe Biden is under immense pressure after its disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and emerging tensions with China over Taiwan, in France Macron will face presidential elections in April, in Germany Olaf Scholz replaces Angela Merkel as German chancellor, Britain is still in Brexit hangover. on the contrary, Russia has full support from China.
According to Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis '' Russia main objective is to re-establish as much of the old empire as it could — Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia,”. “I think this is part of the legacy that President Putin sees for himself.”
If Russia continues to expand its existence in Ukraine, it might gain strategically but have to face serious economic sanctions by European countries which further deteriorate its relations, complicating negotiations on various vital regional as well as global issues like terrorism, maritime security, Arms control etc.