Kazakhstan- the ninth largest country in the world, Rich in Natural Gas, Colossal oil, Uranium deposits, boarding with Russia to the north...
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Kazakhstan- the ninth largest country in the world, Rich in Natural Gas, Colossal oil, Uranium deposits, boarding with Russia to the north and with China to its east. Kazakhstan gained independence after the soviet union disintegration in 1991 and was ruled by communist leader Nursultan Nazarbayev authoritarian government till he vacated his presidential post in 2019, however, he transferred the power to his hand-picked successor Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and continued to operate behind the curtain as he retained the key position in Kazakhstan's National Security Council.
The country experienced political stability during Nursultan Nazarbayev's reign in comparison with other Central Asian countries for the last 3 decades but now is dealing with its worst crisis in 30 years.
What has sparked the Protests
On January 2, the Government removed the subsidy cap and moved away from price controls to be in line with global market pricing for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) which led to an increase in LPG prices at Gas Stations from $0.14 to $0.28. According to Government data, over 80 per cent of vehicles in the country run on LPG. Kazakhstan is a poverty-stricken country where half the population lives in dire poverty, the fuel price rise led to enormous resentment among the people against the government and caused the riots to erupt on 2 January, initially in the western part of the country(also the oil-producing region)before disseminating rapidly to other parts of the country and enlarged as Anti-Government and Anti-Nazarbayev Protest.
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What has been the Government's Response
Askar Maman the Prime minister of Kazakhstan and his cabinet has resigned, and President Qasim Jomart Tokayev has forced his unpopular predecessor Nazarbayev to leave the National Security Council and declare a state of emergency in disturbing parts of the country and ordered its security forces to shoot protesters without warning, imposed night curfew from 11 Pm to 7 Am, banned large people gatherings and movement, shutdown internet across the country, National Bank has temporarily suspended all financial institutions. Also, the Tokayev government has taken down its LPG policy and reduced the fuel prices($0.12 per litre)and capped them for the next six months.
On Thursday, Tokayev also requested assistance from Russia led- CSTO( Collective Security Treaty Organization) alliance which includes multiple former Soviet republics like Belarus and Armenia, for a peacekeeping force to assist the local law enforcement authorities to keep the order in place in Kazakhstan, within a few hours of the request, CSTO sent its peacekeepers (approx 3000 troops) to Kazakhstan.
U.S State Department spokesperson Ned Prince said on Thursday that the U.S is closely monitoring CSTO forces attempts to seize control of Kazakh institutions or for violations of human rights.
The narrative in US media(amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict ) is that Putin is looking to annex Kazakhstan or at least those regions where the majority of ethnic Russian resides in the north and unify the region. Western media also claimed that Putin is trying to re-install the Soviet model by annexing countries whereas Moscow is accusing the CIA of attempting to instigate another color revolution and establish a hand-picked regime into Nur-Sultan. Both of the Narratives looks unreal to the prevailing situation as of now at least.
On the other hand, China is also concerned over the unfolding situation as it has big trade and industrial interests in the country and supported the efforts of Tokayev's government to quell the violent protests. But this unrest might have consequences on China growing influence and pipeline politics of the region, where there may be a long term shift away from China and towards Russia.